Saturday, July 25, 2009

We are in Secular bear market rally

It's clear to me that we are in a rally within a secular bear market (some will call it a cyclical bull market). In other words, it's coming within the confines of a long-term or secular bear market. Old timers saw this same situation during the 1966 to 1974 bear market. At that time we saw a series of cyclical bull markets, all coming within the framework of a long-term or secular bear market.

In the end, that secular bear market ended the way most bear markets end -- amid black pessimism and with blue-chip stocks at great values or "below known values."

What was missing at the March 9 lows? Extreme pessimism was absent as were the great values in blue-chip, dividend-paying stocks sporting yields of 6% to 10%.

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