Thursday, June 25, 2009

Market strength deteriorating

Dow was down by 23 points to 8299. Market action in past few days shows continuous deterioration in fundamentals, i suggest to sell 75% of your holding, I will start selling my holding in couple of days.
Here is the reason why i belive so....
We saw 90% down-days on June 15 and June 22. Normally, following a 90% down-day there will be a rally lasting 2 to 7 days. But we've seen nothing impressive following the two June 90% down-days. The latest 90% down-day which occurred on June 22 saw a labored rise in the internals of the market, even though yesterday the Dow actually closed lower as the market lifted feebly higher.


Every day the market does "something." The public always wants to know WHY the market did this or that. Newspapers survive by serving and interesting their readers -- for this reason newspapers feel pressured to supply the "reason" for each day's market move. Of course, this is utter nonsense. We almost never know the real reason for the market's daily movements, and if we try to zero in on the reason, the reason we choose is invariably wrong.

Therefore it is best to forget the "why" of any market movement. For instance, the market may decline on rotten housing news, but the decline had nothing to do with housing news, actually the reason for the decline was a break in the bonds as interest rates pushed higher.

In the end, it is best to treat the market and the news of the day as two totally separate items. The only study of the market that is worth anything is the study of the action of the market itself. The best study of the news is via Bloomberg or Barron's or the Financial Times. But it's always best to keep the two studies totally separate. Or as Keynes put it, "The market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent." Of course, an "irrational market" is a market that you don't understand.

2 comments:

  1. "an "irrational market" is a market that you don't understand. " how true haha

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  2. i think we should accept this that this is true...
    Mini Index Forecasting

    ReplyDelete