Sunday, May 3, 2009

Are we in bull or bear market..?

I was not able to write my blog last week as I was too busy with my dissertation project, sleeping every day at 4 am and going to work by 7 30 am and over the weekend I was catching up with my sleep. I almost done with my dissertation.

Are we in bull or bear market? Its a million dollar question and only time will tell us. I have been following few most respected wallstreet investors , they also seems to be divided on their opinion .
Here is the reason why................
Technical action of the market tells us that we are in bull market.A/D ratio , advancing stocks led declining stocks by a ratio of 2 to 1 over a ten-day period,
gave a buy signal on 23 march , the market’s prospects over the intermediate term are favourable.The A/D Ratio has only flashed 12 buy signals since 1949. They are almost as rare as triple-crown winners. The last buy signal occurred all the way back on February 5, 1991. Prior to that you have to go back to 1987 and then back to
1982.The Dow gained an average of 7.92% over the next three months following an A/D Ratio buy signal. Six months later, the Dow was ahead 14.91% and a year later 18.55%.
Another survey that has long-term bullish implications is the monthly asset allocation poll that AAII conducts. At the peak of the dot-com bubble, the asset allocation was 77% stocks, 8%bonds, and 15% cash. This is how it should be.This is exactly the type of reading one would expect near the tail-end of a lengthy bull market.Everyone was loaded up with stocks, and the last thing they wanted to be was in cash. At the conclusion of the most recent poll, the asset allocation was 41% stocks, 14% bonds, and 45%cash. The cash allocation represents the fuel for the next bull market.

According to dow theory: the primary trend of the market cannot be manipulated.
Most bear markets take the form of a major decline, then a major upward correction, and finally an extended and destructive decline to final lows.my belief is that this bear market will continue to its destination, regardless of all that the Fed and the Treasury have done to end it prematurely. In other words, I believe this bear market will fully express itself, no matter what.

Now, finally, my view is we are in bull market ,I am invested in the market , I have 50% of my cash in the market now.

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