Advice of one of the most followed wall street investor

............Old timers are fond of saying, "The trend is your friend." The trend may be your friend, but I can tell you that the stock market is not your friend. I've said this before and I'll repeat it -- the stock market is not for the average investor. As is the case with Las Vegas gambling, stick with the stock market long enough and it will take your money and leave you chagrined and angry. In my experience, if you deal with the stock market over any length of time, you will end up poorer and more frustrated than when you started.

Market meeting some resistance

After 3 weeks of straight gains, stocks reaching overbought levels. For the week, the Dow rose 6.8 percent, the S&P 500 gained 6.2 percent and the Nasdaq added 6 percent. The Dow lost 148 points or 1.9% to close at 7,776, the S&P 500 fell 17 points or 2.0% to 816, and the Nasdaq Composite stumbled 42 points or 2.6% to 1,545.

The Nasdaq's relative strength is quite striking, in fact. The Nasdaq Composite Index is now in positive territory for the year, with a 0.6% gain since the end of 2008. The Dow, in contrast, is nearly 10% lower.
Coming weeks will really tell the direction of this nascent bull market. I still staying away from market for now.

Dow surge 6.8%

Dow surged 497 points in todays rally, bank stocks were highlight of todays action. This seems to another exciting bear trap , though we have solid follow up days, but such powerf rally were not seen in previous 34 bull markets since 1900, the advance is too fast , like previous rallies of oct and nov. I will selling my Citi shares in rally for almost 50% profit, i advice to sell the rally and wait for market direction, I may be wrong but bull market has never started such steep rallies. We may seen some selling from here. Bear market tend to be violent and powerful.

Richard Russell, editor of Dow Theory Letters, puts it this way: "In bear markets, corrections against the primary direction tend to arrive without warning and are very rapid, often recovering in a week the bear market damage of a few months. Part of the attraction of a bear market rally [correction] is the speed of the advance. This makes the rally doubly attractive and allows those still in the market the fantasy of recouping their losses in short order."

We are in final leg of this Bear

I was not able to update my blog daily due to my work commitment. I will try my best to do alteast 3 times a week.

Friday dow fell 122 points (1.65%) and S&P 500 15 ( 1.98 %), the rally which started on 9 march have multiple 9-1 days ( Volume of all NYSE stocks that go up on given day). We are in final lag of this bear market, much of the damage is already done and market is forming a base , it may pull back few 100 points on and will start powerful bull market . I am still cautious and waiting for opportunity , though investors who are willing to take some exposure can put 20% of money in stocks.



I have personally invested in Citi( bought 5,000 @ $2.1), it may pull back next week around 2 or may be lower, I feel it is longterm buying opportunity . I also like GE, BOA, Dow chemical,AXP.



Get ready with your CASH market is going to form "W" formation and we will have great opportunity of our lifetime to buy good stocks cheap.

Wow I was spot on

I was spot on, dow added 9% for the week. Market is oversold but looks like we are going up from here. Stocks moved up in consecutive 4 sessions , the main reason was bank of America and citigroup announced that they are profitable in first 2 months of 2009. BOA gained over 40% in past 5 sessions. Its good time to unload some of the stocks in this rally, we are going higher, but i still feel we should move down in few months. Long term investors should remain sideline, we are heading to over bought area, market may go higher in coming weeks.

Wow we are in for rally

Stocks soared on Citi news that it made profit in Jan and Feb, this was disclosed by Mr Pandit via email to employees. Dow rocketed 379 points (5.8 %), Citigroup tanked 38 %. We are in for rally here with 70% of AAII investers in bearish camp. This rally could take down to 8500-9000 range. But I still feel this is another bear trap and good time to let go some stocks.

GDP down by ugly 6.2%

Thank you friends for stopping by and visiting my Blog. I am an amateur investor who uses both technical and fundamental analysis for investments. I can only give my own opinion based on my expereince on market movements, and shall not be responsible for any investment losses that may have incurred based on my advice, i urge you to make your own decisions.



US Markets

The Dow & S&P are at 12 year low, market is oversold and poised for some bounce back.

Stay on sidelines and remain fully in cash. Some economists like Nouriel Roubini are saying recession will last untill end of 2010. Economy can go into ugly "L" shape depression.

US GDP has contracted by 6.2% in final quarter of 2008.



Roubini said the global economy may shrink 1 percent or grow 0.5 percent in 2009, before recovering to about a 1 percent growth in 2010, effectively extending the recession until the end of next year.
Emerging market economies, including China and India, will slow down sharply, he said, adding that “we are already seeing the beginnings of a hard landing.”
China’s economy may grow 5 percent “at best” in 2009 after expanding at an average 10 percent pace each year in the past decade, Roubini said, rejecting the theory that emerging markets are decoupled from the problems in industrialized countries.




Singapore Market :

STI index close at 1513.

Nobel group is one of the few stocks showing resilience at $1 level, but with bad macro economic environment, its better to stay on sidelines.